On Thursday, Queen Elizabeth II signed the law initiating Great Britain's exit from the EU. Brexit has officially begun, and there is no going back. Ahead are torturous negotiations with Brussels which will last at least two years. It's a fact that Scotland and Northern Ireland really don't want to exit the EU along with Great Britain.
In last summer's referendum, 62% of Scots voted for Great Britain to remain in the EU. Now there is again talk in Scotland of a possible referendum on independence from Great Britain, and membership in the EU as an independent state. Similar ideas are now also gaining ground in Northern Ireland. Aleksandr Khabarov reports on the beginning of the first 'divorce' in EU history.
In cold, northern Aberdeen, at the Scottish National Party Conference, it is so hot that the Nationalist leader and Scottish Premier, Nicola Sturgeon is trying on a firemen's uniform in the hallway. But right now, this woman is setting fires of her own. Early in the week, she announced that Scotland should hold a second referendum on independence.
The Scottish Nationalists lost the first one in 2014. But, this time, according to Sturgeon, the situation has changed due to Brexit. Great Britain is leaving the EU. 62% of Scots voted against it, and she considers this sufficient to finally "break up" with England. The Scottish Parliament must have the right to hold one more referendum. This is about Scotland being removed from the EU against its will. The vote in Scotland's Parliament is already scheduled for next Wednesday. But Scotland is facing a serious obstacle on its way to the referendum — UK Prime Minister, Theresa May. She believes there are no grounds for a second plebiscite. The tunnel vision of the Scottish National Party is quite distressing. It will lead Scotland down a path of increased uncertainty and the threat of division.
Brexit hasn't happened yet, but it has already become a threat to the United Kingdom, which now risks a major reduction in its size. And here on Downing St, they know full well that Scotland's possible independence isn't the only problem. Alongside Scotland, Northern Ireland, which also voted against Brexit, is talking about a referendum of its own. It is a territory that the British government has held onto for decades, but with great difficulty. Brexit, as we have stated many times, will be a disaster for Ireland's economy as well. For us, Sinn Fein, it means that a referendum on Ireland's reunification must be held as soon as possible.
Theresa May recently announced her intentions to go out and calm the rebellious regions. And, it's unclear why she didn't do it earlier. The Scots complain that nobody considered their interests before negotiations began on exiting the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May has taken an uncompromising position. She's charted her own course and isn't interested in the Scots' opinion. It forces us toward the only possible outcome — nothing less than taking matters into our own hands. Because, nobody is going to take care of us unless we do it ourselves. So, you think the second referendum in inevitable? I think there will be a second referendum in 18 months; two years tops. Using Brexit, the Scottish Nationalists have changed their slogan. Now, their country seeks independence so that it can remain a part of the EU. But the agenda isn't the only thing that has changed.
New leaders have appeared both in London and in Edinburgh. Now that the possibility of a second referendum on Scottish independence has become real, the United Kingdom's fate would now seem to be in the hands of two women. And now, much depends on what Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May manage to negotiate. For now, the opponents keep exchanging blows. Scotland's future must be in the hands of the Scots themselves. Edinburgh is seeking to ensure that Scotland's "special position" is at least outlined in London's official petition to leave the European Union, which Theresa May promises to send to Brussels by the end of March.
The British government is still composing that letter. It is understood here that once the negotiations begin, there will be no going back. And then London will have only two years to negotiate the best possible conditions. The EU is already preparing a bill for almost 60 billion euros to cover Great Britain's commitments through 2020. London is counting on negotiating a partial reduction of 11 billion. Scotland's demarche, with its demands for independence, makes things more complicated. Theresa May now must be a diplomat inside her own country. The question is whether London has enough strength to negotiate in parallel with Brussels, Edinburgh and possibly Northern Ireland all at the same time.
