A 90-page report To the Brink — and Back? opened the 54th Munich Security Conference. In the foreword, German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, presiding the Conference, wrote: "Last year, the world has gotten closer – much too close! – to the brink of a significant conflict."
It is the first time that those who will be primarily responsible for unleashing the war have spoken about a menace of war. However, it's obvious to everyone who doesn't have their head in the clouds or under the sand.
"Soon it will be time to make decisions about what to do next. We aim at peace settlement. We put as much pressure as possible on North Korea by all means".
Vice-president Pence who's recently toured South-Eastern Asia made it clear that one shouldn't relax. When the united Korean team appeared at the stadium, Pence pointedly remained seated, as if meaning that Olympics won't make the USA leapfrog the abyss.
A major maneuver involving 300 thousand soldiers will be launched after the Olympics as well as strict economic sanctions. Pence spoke about them in Tokyo. But all this is about formalities. Judging by CIA Director Pompeo's statement at the hearings in Senate, saying that Pyongyang is a footstep away from getting a weapon capable of striking the US, all bets are off.
Marco Rubio, US senator: "I share every word about Russia's actions, but it's China that represents the greatest threat to the US today. Never before has the USA faced a potential enemy with such a size, influence, and possibilities. China is conducting a well-planned, smart and patient policy aimed to take the US status of the most powerful state on the planet".
Everybody understands, though few say that the Korean issue is only aimed to tie China's hands. In this context, the US elite's ambivalence while determining the main enemy reflects the growing division not only in the US itself and not only between the US and China.
Along with the Munich report, Wolfgang Ischinger prepared another 50-page report devoted to the European security. It covers the intention of the EU (meaning Germany and France) to arrange their own army regardless of NATO and the US. The reports complement one another.
"Today, the pillars of the world liberal order have come under increasing pressure. Surprisingly, the most significant attacks come from unforeseen sources. As G. John Ikenberry notes, “the world’s most powerful state has begun to sabotage the order it created. A hostile revisionist power has indeed arrived on the scene, but it sits in the Oval Office, the beating heart of the free world. So are we present at the erosion or even at the destruction?"
Looks like. Otherwise, why should the French president announce this week his desire to restore compulsory military service or his readiness to have the French Air Force to bomb Syria? There are so many people who want to bomb someone.
"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is to insist on adopting the constitutional amendments aimed to alter or cancel Article 9. The prime minister surprised the nation in May last year when he announced he wanted to legitimize the SDF".
The Japan army is known to have lost its legal status because of the Soviet soldiers who made 1.5-million Kwantung Army capitulate in September 1945.
Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution consists of 2 paragraphs. The first says that 'the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation' and the second one says that 'the right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.' Besides, no laws prevent Japan from deploying more and more US ABM systems on its territory.
Even if we turn the globe the other way round the Munich report will be no less zealous. Latin America is inching to the same line which has been almost hit by the Far and the Middle East.
"Caracas on Monday accused Bogotá of leading a “bombing campaign,” or military efforts to invade Venezuela, has said Tarek Saab, Venezuela’s chief prosecutor, following a visit from U.S. Admiral Kurt Tidd, head of the U.S. Southern Command. They are planning a military invasion or the occupation, through blood and gunfire, of a peaceful country like Venezuela. We will not allow it", said Saab".
Tarek Saab has a reason for anxiety. Both Columbia and Brazil, where Caracas has no allies after Dilma Rousseff was impeached, deployed a big military grouping at the border with Venezuela. Officially — due to a high refugee influx from the country suffocated by sanctions. Unofficially — due to the fact that Venezuela seems to be a pawn in a chess game.
"Last year, Congress passed new sanctions against Russia but Trump's administration decided not to impose them. From the perspective of the intelligence, how does Russia treat the passivity of the US?"
Mike Pompeo, CIA Director: "We have to look at it in a broader context that is how the Russian view all measures we conduct. We decided to supply Ukraine with weapons. We responded to Russia's actions in Syria. The sanctions against Venezuela directly affect the Russian interests. Trump's administration takes a lot of steps that make Russia endure pain".
And we are enduring pain. Both in Syria, where it has come to an armed clash with the US forces for the first time and in Donbas, where the politicians dream of to carrying out the Yugoslav Peacekeeper Scenario. But what if the exceed the pain threshold?
What if the Iskanders located in Kaliningrad aren't just inflatable dummies made to joke about them online and troll the US ABM? What will happen if the Munich analysts are right and the US terminates the INF Treaty and nuclear Pershings start appear all over Europe like in the 80s? Step by step, steered by insoluble contradictions our world approaches the abyss.
"On February 15, during the ABM exercise of the Ukrainian Air Force the aerial units of the Russian Aerospace Forces along the eastern border of the Ukrainian air space became more active. Assault and bomber aircraft were taking off from the Kursk, Millerovo, Gvardeyskoye, and Saki Airfields flying close to the Ukrainian border and the red line. Besides, a group of Tu-95 strategic missile bombers accompanied by a couple of Su-30 assault aircraft passed the air space of Crimea and tested a simulated missile launch towards the Ukrainian mainland".
It might be a hallucination or the account of the Ukrainian Air Force got hacked by some new hackers. It would be great to blame hackers for everything including the apocalyptic report. Just ban them and call it a day. Unfortunately, there's no way to ban stupidity and greed two well-familiar traits for all participants of the Munich Conference. A deadly combo, if you think about it.
It was Agitation & Propaganda It was Agitation and Propaganda. See you soon. Peace to your home.
