On Tuesday, President Trump announced America's withdrawal from the so-called nuclear deal with Iran. If you recall, three years ago this landmark agreement was the result of a very difficult and prolonged diplomatic marathon. When six states (Russia, China, Germany, France, England and the USA) reached the agreement with Iran, Europe was the first to sigh with relief, with 100,000 people taking to Tehran's streets in celebration. Iranians were happy that sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, and independently by the US and the European Union, were lifted. Instead, it was agreed that the country's nuclear program would be fully under international control. Iran made a commitment to only using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. It's important to note that it's the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that verifies the implementation of the nuclear deal. Not a specific country or a group of countries, but only the IAEA. Period.
Thus, Iran fell under the world's strictest control. No other country experiences anything of the kind. IAEA experts are always present at all of Iran's nuclear facilities and enjoy almost unlimited access everywhere. This is called ongoing monitoring. The six states that concluded the deal with Iran receive regular IAEA reports, each time confirming that Iran is scrupulously fulfilling the nuclear deal.
Here's a quick line from the official statement made by the IAEA the day after Trump broke from America's obligations on the Iran nuclear deal.
"As of today, the IAEA can confirm that the nuclear related commitments are being implemented by Iran".
That is, Iran is fulfilling the deal with the six countries. It's the USA that refuses to fulfill the deal with the six states (Iran, China, Germany, England, France, and Russia.) By the way, the agreement called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) establishes the dispute resolution process as well as the withdrawal process. America didn't apply any of the described procedures. Trump just slammed the door, unwilling to discuss anything with anyone. This is the new style that America uses in international affairs — my way or the highway!
Later, we'll talk about the implications of such an attitude. Now let's speculate on how the breach of the deal can affect Iran's policies. Curiously, the unreliability of the US as a partner in the negotiations of the deal was predicted three years ago by Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He's the number one figure in Iran.
Khamenei already made such tweets during the negotiations: "I trust our negotiators, but I'm very concerned that the other side could lie and break promises."And then he focused on the US: "They always cheat and break promises".
Even after the nuclear deal was finalized, Khamenei remained skeptical. At that time, this was directed at the main supporter of the deal, the "sheik of diplomacy", Iranian President Rouhani This is what he wrote about him. “Some people claim that, having taken office, they've eradicated the specter of war hanging over the country. This is false.” That is, Ayatollah Khamenei appears to have second sight while President Rouhani's position has been weakened. Rouhani turned out to be gullible. After all, it was Rouhani who promoted the nuclear deal inside of Iran, the deal which America so easily neglected. Domestically, Rouhani is considered a moderate, a supporter of secular reforms. If he's compromised, the much more radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard will gain momentum. Would anybody feel safer in such a scenario? For example, Europe or Israel? I doubt it. That is, the US is now effectively undermining moderate forces in Iran. That's it.
Moreover, America forces Europe to seek adventure, calling for re-imposing sanctions on Iran. The coming weeks will show what Germany, France, and England will do. So far, Iran is giving them a chance. This is how President Rouhani sees the current situation.
Hassan Rouhani: "From now on, the JCPOA is a deal between Iran and five countries".
That is, the deal is still working, but without America, only with Europe, China and Russia. But at the same time, President Rouhani, having been deceived, had to make a bitter, belated confession, directly televised to the nation.
Hassan Rouhani: "We've had an important, historic experience. Over the past 40 years, we've been reiterating that Iran always fulfills its commitments, while the USA never fulfills its commitments".
When Rouhani was negotiating with the USA he never made such statements. Would he ever deal with "a country that never fulfills its commitments?" And if so, what new "good deal" with Iran does Trump mean now? One which will be one day called "bad" and abandoned under false pretexts in violation of all procedures? In any case, even previously moderate President Rouhani is already sounding completely different. If sanctions are re-imposed, Iran will withdraw from the deal and, in spite of everything, will return to creating its own nuclear bomb.
Hassan Rouhani: "I have instructed Iran's Atomic Energy Organization to be ready for the next steps if necessary. And if such need arises, to start unrestricted industrial enrichment".
The only thing that can calm down Iran is if the remaining five states — Germany, France, England, China, and Russia — will somehow compensate for the losses made by America's exit from the deal. This was stated by Rouhani in a conversation with Turkish President Erdogan.
"Europe, especially the five states involved in the negotiations with Iran, must clearly define their position, and the steps to compensate for the USA's withdrawal, within a short period of time".
Actually, it sounds like Iran now, after Donald Trump, just spits on everybody.
