It seems like Donald Trump decided to finish off Angela Merkel at the same time when Merkel's hastily trying to save her government. Seehofer, the resolute Interior Minister from Bavaria gave her an ultimatum regarding her migration policy threatening to stop the aliens right at the German border. And Seehofer is in charge of border police so he's capable of carrying out his threat.
Seehofer gave Merkel two weeks to change the migration policy of the EU and close its external borders. Otherwise, Seehofer's police officers will follow his orders guarding the German borders which means against Chancellor Merkel. It's a plausible scenario. And Minister Seehofer won't give in. It's a serious nightmare for any leader of any government when law enforcement gets out of control. In this instance, Angela Merkel stepped back and agreed to the ultimatum because Seehofer holds her fate and the fate of her government in his hands. Seehofer is the leader of the CSU — one of the parties in the ruling coalition. If he quits the coalition, the government will collapse. Merkel wouldn't recover after losing Seehofer. She wouldn't be able to assemble a new coalition and a new cabinet which would lead to another parliamentary election with no hope of winning and her early retirement at 64 against her will. What a shame. That's not the way she wanted to end her career. But maybe she can still fight? Is she capable of fighting?
But right at Merkel's critical moment, Donald Trump decides to finish off the German Chancellor. Mercilessly and pragmatically. The American President doesn't need this Merkel or this European Union. At six-odd in the morning, he crashed Merkel with a tweet. After brushing his teeth, Trump usually entertains himself in the morning by posting on Twitter.
"The people of Germany are turning against their leadership as migration is rocking the already tenuous Berlin coalition. A big mistake was made all over Europe by allowing in millions of people who have so strongly and violently changed their culture!"
Trump adds insult to injury and rubs salt in the wound. It was Merkel who let the migrants in Germany and Europe. The dispute over this issue threatens the unity in both Germany and Europe. There's only one person responsible for that and it's Merkel. You say "migrants", you hear "Merkel." You say "Merkel", you hear "migrants."
The European opposition to Angela Merkel is becoming more violent and ruthless. Just look at her young rival in the fight for the hearts and minds of the Europeans Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz On the eve of the EU migration summit which is going to be held on Tuesday Kurz went to Budapest, Hungary. Just like Merkel is a synonym of migration to Europe leader of Hungary Orban is a synonym of national protection against migrants invited to Europe by Angela Merkel and a synonym for protecting national culture and interests. During the whole period of the European hospitality, Hungary accommodated only 12 migrants. Exactly 12 people, not one migrant more. One needs to understand the proportion when the EU has accepted millions of migrants. Last week, Orban's position was strengthened after he was publicly supported by Trump. Trump personally supported Orban's desire to protect the Hungarian national border. Later, sometime after six in the morning, Trump added a well-crafted maxim.
"If you don't have Borders, you don't have a Country!"
In this political context, the vigorous Austrian Chancellor Kurz arrives in Budapest. Last Thursday. Being young and passionate, he's playing the long game, and won't retire soon. Kurz is 31 and fearless. Putin recently visited him during a working visit in Vienna. Before that, Kurz had visited the Kremlin and succeeded at establishing contact and showing how it's done. In Budapest, Kurz didn't just meet Orban but the other leaders of the Visegrad Group as well: Czechia, Slovakia, and Poland. EU considers each country as a tough nut to crack. It would be hard for the EU to make them follow the European refugee accommodation quotas. There's no way they'll agree on that, especially the Czech Republic and Poland. The former hasn't accepted a single migrant from the Middle East or Northern Africa. Same deal with Poland. Not a single one, period. And they aren't going to start. Brussels is threatening them with court but they won't give in.
Some interesting figures. Six months ago, the Pew Research Center in America published a forecast, according to which, by the year 2050 the percentage of Muslims in Germany, Britain, France, and Austria will grow to up to 18-20% if the migration policy doesn't change. If nothing changes, the Swedish population would be 30% Muslim by 2050. In Russia, Muslims have always been a historic part of our population. However, they are aliens in Europe. They live in isolated communities, igniting fear and arousing suspicion. Warsaw won't let that happen to Poland. Muslims are currently a tiny minority, they are less than 0.2% of the population. And Poland isn't going to change that proportion. Slovakia's a bit more flexible, but Hungary and the Czech Republic remain adamant. In this sense, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has found some tough allies to oppose Merkel. By the way, Hungary adopted the so-called Anti-Soros Law this week. It's not against George Soros, who was actually born in Hungary but rather against private companies financed by him that help migrants in Hungary. Right from the beach.
On the south, Merkel is flanked by Italy with its new government and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who is giving Angela Merkel his own ultimatum. Conte is ready to meet Merkel and other EU leaders to discuss the migrant issue but only if there are no documents prepared beforehand. Once again, Merkel is forced to give in. She called Conte and persuaded him to come to Brussels. But going there isn't the same as agreeing to her terms. I can imagine how Brussels makes Minister Conte sick. It's bad enough that thanks to the laws issued by the Brussels bureaucracy Italy is forced to accommodate ships carrying refugees from another continent like Aquarius. Moreover, due to the anti-Russian sanctions, Italy is losing tens of billions of euros. The EU's bureaucracy is made up of approximately 50,000 officials that apply a one-size-fits-all approach to the 28 countries of the EU, controlling everything, including the size of the harvested cucumbers. They have a universal action plan that includes recommendations of what everyone should sow and whether Czechia should breed pigs. They shouldn't. Better sow some rapeseed instead. The whole Czech Republic is getting some rapeseed. The universal bio-fuel. The whole country is yellow with rapeseed, as if it had jaundice. And Italy should accommodate more refugees. It's no surprise that today, only 39% of Italians believe that joining the EU was a right thing to do. The current Italy would have never joined the EU.
And Poland might actually leave it. Summing up the Polish attitude: "We'll remain in the EU only if we get paid. If you stop giving us $13 billion annually, we'll leave. Don't think we're bad people. It's just business, nothing personal." The Polish subsidy program ends in 2020. We'll see how it goes.
By the way, it's a consequence of the first fatal error of the EU. The second one was their decision to welcome the migrant. The first one was their desire to rapidly expand while being unable to absorb national states against the background of those states striving to ensure their national interests. Over time, fewer states and individual Europeans perceive the European Union as a project that's worth sacrificing something of theirs. Fewer states and individual Europeans hope that Merkel-led Germany will protect them.
Let's draw our conclusions. The USA needs Europe as part of NATO, and as the buyer of the American weapons and expensive American liquefied natural gas. Trump doesn't need the new EU that rivals America. That's how it ended up in a bad spot. Merkel says that Europe needs to get back to its feet. Juncker says that Europe should confront the US. But they aren't strong enough. They made Russia their enemy by imposing their meaningless sanctions. They are constantly in a state of internal confrontation due to the refugees invited by Merkel. And for some reason, they taught the young European nations to bark at Russia. And now, they think they're more important than they really are. And don't forget about the conflict in Ukraine: Europe has its finger in the pie. Let's recall how Fabius, Sikorski, and Steinmeier promised to ensure the peaceful transition of power from Yanukovych to the Maidan folks in February 2014. After the coup, instead of protecting the deal, the European guarantors fled. And then acted like nothing happened. Europe's still recovering from the consequences of the economic crisis. The one that broke out 10 years ago. Let's not forget about Brexit with all the following budget losses. It's clear that Merkel, who used to be the mother of the EU, won't be able to easily keep the Union united.
It's not just about Merkel anymore. The grieving head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker seems to often hold public speeches while being tipsy. In this condition, he's clearly a Euro-skeptic or at least, definitely not a Euro-optimist. The only remaining Euro-optimist lives in Kiev. This Wednesday, journalists asked Juncker whether he felt that it was one minute to midnight for the EU. He responded in a witty manner: "At least we still have a minute". So meaningful and insightful.
