Sergey Mikheyev, top political expert: Besides everything else, it shows us who's instigating war on our planet. We're frequently accused of escalating the situation doing something that makes the world a scarier place and bringing humanity closer to the Third World War. In reality, those cataclysms are brought about by the global policies of the US because it centers around conflicts. It requires conflicts to prove its supremacy. No one would fear and trust their supremacy without conflicts. Americans reproduce themselves in this cycle because they require constant tension in order to prolong their world supremacy. With their model of global leadership, they put the world on the brink of a new World War. And let their European allies realize that. Yes, they are useless, yes, nobody listened to them. But they aren't deaf or blind. Let them see what their American patrons are dragging them into in terms of relations with other nations that they could benefit from, like Russia.
Now, regarding Iran, I understand how tense the situation is but I agree that a massive attack against Iran is an unlikely scenario. What would they achieve with this attack? Would they change the power? I don't think so. Would they delete Iran from the region? That's unlikely. I believe Iran wouldn't disappear so they might try attacking it but would this step help them achieve their goals? That's an open question. Or we're planting the wrong ones.
Regarding the... Who knows, it might happen. Now, regarding us I wouldn't say that something the US does will have a guaranteed result. Since the 90's, we have one negative feature all our talks and analysis are centered around the decisions of the US. That's an internal weakness that often leads to defeat. Our inability to take a proactive approach and many other flaws. We assume they possess powers that they don't actually have. That's why we are programmed to lose in advance. They decided to change. Well, they might not succeed, or not entirely. There's never been an absolute result. By the way, the Americans are the same. They plan one thing and end up with the other. However, being on an "island" they can afford all those costs. Their priority is to make sure those costs and mistakes don't have a fatal impact on them.
But back to Russia. This situation puts Iran closer to us because we can't ignore any pressure, including the military one, against Iran because Iran is our southern neighbor.
- And China.
- Yes, China too. We don't share a land border but we have one in the Caspian Sea. And we have a lot of bilateral agreements regarding that Caspian Sea. So it makes Iran closer to us and gives us a field for maneuver in terms of both bilateral relations and Syria where our interests sometimes clash. Regarding the military aspect, it's a great opportunity to sell Iran more weapons including the air-defense systems. Why not? If they need protection against aerial threat then we need to exploit the situation. Regarding the economy, we said we can't supply so many aircraft. Well, we have to try. We have to exploit the new market and put some effort to achieve something in this situation.
- There's one nasty aspect. We have to consider the fact that some parts are produced in America.
- Vladimir, there are always negative aspects. It's life. But if we let those aspects stop us... They say those who want seek means and those who don't seek excuses. Speaking about dealing with Iran all these years we've been seeking excuses not to do something. We should start seeking means to benefit from the situation. Besides, the oil prices are getting higher the more aggressive the US acts in the Middle East. Remember how recently all those egghead economists used to say that oil would soon be $6 per barrel it's the end of the oil era and we'd all soon lose our shirts. They dreamed of it being $20. In the context of the current situation, it's $77 now.
- But they are still afraid of sudden fluctuations.
- Remember they recently said that oil would never be $100 again? It's almost $80 now. Even your grandma wouldn't know whether it'll rain or snow. I love all those economic forecasts but they are usually all about brewing moonshine when sugar prices drop and buying vodka when they go up.
- The current situation seems rather nice.
- I'm getting to that. One can benefit from every situation.
- That's a great name for a new book on economics. Your sugar plan is brilliant.
That's the formula of the majority of economic forecasts. And when they fail they go: You know, there were some additional factors blah-blah-blah. They are just trying to hide their inability to forecast the non-linear processes.
- There's also a term "volatility".
- Oh yeah, "the volatility".
- I've always thought it lacks the letter "f." It should be called "failatility".
- But every cloud has its silver lining. The Americans' attempt to destabilize the situation and turn it into chaos allows us to dot all the i's and not just us but other countries as well. Take the situation with Europe. Yes, it's weak and extremely dependent and the US likes it that way, but the Iranian situation allows us to get closer. Why don't we discuss this topic? Let's join our efforts. We now have a chance to discuss something we both don't like. We get a chance to cooperate. For them, the Iranian issue is no less important than the situation in Ukraine maybe even more important. So why don't we use the situation instead of idly waiting whether the US succeeds or fails? They sow chaos. Well, if we all just sit there like frightened rabbits they will do whatever they want.
- Far across the ocean.
- If the situation with the elections is like the one you described, Vladimir and it's supposed to be like that then we can assume that the attack is going to be the same. It might be an imitation…
- They wouldn't dare.
- It's an open question. We were speaking about the Syrian attacks. Here, we discussed everything and made our verdict. Nobody in the US has considered that. Nobody speaks about that in America maybe some experts express their doubts regarding the efficiency of the attack. Their mass media creates a clear picture: there was a large-scale strike that destroyed all targets and Donald Trump, together with his allies, whacked Syria. They can theoretically do the same thing with Iran or Iranian forces in Syria. Why not? So when we discuss the probability I'd say I don't believe in a large-scale war between America and Iran. They can't pull it off. But in the lead-up to the election, they can do something that could be presented within the US as a powerful strike of a ruthless president. Yes, that's a picture they can draw. But what will it be is another issue. Regarding the Peace Nobel Prize if Trump gets it too then we can say the Nobel Fund is done. It's done.
- There's an issue with the Prize itself. You know that they decided not to award the Literature Prize due to a sex scandal. And Donald Trump has yet to deal with... What do they call them now? Free genre actresses?
- Free artists. She's got two degrees.
- Ladies with lower social responsibility.
- I'd like to once again stress what I've said during the previous part: Thanks to the Iranian situation we have an opportunity to cooperate with Europe. We must use it. And not just in terms of political and social cooperation but also economic. Russia can serve as a mediator between Iran and Europe. That's a thing we must do.
Please, let me finish. I'm not saying we it'll definitely be a success. But we should definitely try. Especially when they say that Europe ignores us, we're isolated and have no shared fields. What do you mean no shared fields? We do have shared fields! We must take the risk, be more flexible. Here's your field — go play!
