Evening with Vladimir Solovyov
- Today has been an uneasy day. Violence escalates in Libya. That's a logical result of the diarchy that emerged after the US and its allies wreaked havoc upon the country. By the way, Barack Obama admitted that Libya was his colossal mistake. Well, he used a milder term saying that he failed to bring it to a democratic conclusion. Well, an apology won't do much good now. The situation gets worse due to ISIS terrorists and the position of the world community. If Russia encourages all parties to stop and not provoke more bloodshed, then the UN Security Council only calls on one party, the Libyan National Army. Obama might've been sincere when he admitted that the Libyan invasion was a mistake but nobody learns from their mistakes.
And there's much to learn. What are the peacekeepers doing in Libya now? Why have oil prices surged so timely? But that's not the only thing that happened today. A colossal blow against American prestige and ego was delivered by Iran. In response to Donald Trump's decision to proclaim the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) a terrorist organization and put it on the list of banned organizations, Iran dubbed the US Army a terrorist organization. Moreover, in order to finish this day off, Putin had a meeting with Erdogan and it became clear that nobody is going to cave in to the American pressure neither in terms of S-400 shipments to Turkey nor in terms of the important role of Russia and Turkey in the resolution of the Syrian conflict based on the recognition of Syria's territorial integrity. In addition, it's obvious that neither Russia nor Turkey are happy about the Golan Heights. We demand compliance with international law.
Mr. Satanovsky, how shall we read all these signs? What's going on? Let's begin with Libya in particular, what's going on there?
Eugeny Satanovsky, President of The Middle East Institute: Well, I'd say that I don't agree with you on this one. Libya wasn't a mistake. Obama was the main mistake. The rest happened later.
- I agree.
- That's it. What should... OK, let's say that we believed his words in exchange for, as it appears, empty promises that were quickly followed by sanctions. Look, Libya was in 2011 and the sanctions were imposed in 2014. Only three years passed, but a colossal chasm gaped between us and America over those years. Yes, Obama was a mistake. Everything that happens in US politics today and tomorrow is the result of their shift away from real life. Let's elect this guy, he looks good on-camera, is great with a microphone, and says wonderful words. And the main thing, he'll be the first non-white President of America, hurray! Well, after all, it appears it wasn't a "hurray." Then, the pendulum swings, like Sir Winston Churchill used to say. It all follows the rule of pendulum and Trump gets elected. And everyone's perplexed. But who will come after Trump though? That's a curious question indeed. Perhaps it'll be Kovtun.
- He can't.
- Can't?
- He wasn't born on US territory. Kovtun is busy. I'll put him in charge of Vinnitsa.
- I believe that he hopes that by the time of the next elections the United States will add Ukraine to its territories as some kind of 62nd state and he'd considered American-born. He's got the required fiery enthusiasm.
But let's get back to Libya. Libya is an auction and the bids are growing. It's nothing more than that. But it's worth saying that the Libyan Arabs also did a good job. Some true desert-dwellers out there. Waiting until the UN Secretary General comes to Tripoli to begin shooting each other, fighting over the city. That's gorgeous. And frankly speaking, they deserve that. I completely agree with our Foreign Ministry in terms of international law and UN priorities. But over the last rather long period of time, I haven't seen the United Nations support something that is about actual international law as an organization or represented by some of its units the way it used to act in Syria with all those chemical weapons and refugees. Unfortunately, no.
- Who's fighting who, Mr. Satanovsky?
- Nobody's fighting anybody there. The thing is that there's no diarchy in Libya. Much worse, it's pentarchy, to say the least. Yes, there are two separate governments, two oil companies, two central banks, all looking nice and pretty in the east and in the west. But there are parties that obey neither, like the clans of Zintan or the clans of Misrata or the Sakharan provinces like Fezzan that have the largest oil reserves. And I'm not even talking about local tribes, tribe alliances field commanders, and various terrorists. Indeed, Libya is the only territory on our planet that for many years, had a direct connection to the infamous Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Militants from the Islamic Emirate of Derna started training back during the Russian-Afghan war. The roots run very deep.
But the current situation is much simpler. Between 14 and 16 April, rather soon, there will be a National General Conference on the future of Libya, in Ghadames. At this conference, a unified government is supposed to get formed. The Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar will have to obey it. Everything's great with a single exception. They didn't offer Haftar anything. This structure of power has no place for him. What should he do?
- How many rifles does he have?
- He will have enough rifles if he withdraws them from Fezzan where he's been pretty successful but now, he doesn’t have enough people to keep them in Fezzan and control the entire Benghazi. And he doesn't really control the entire Oil Crescent in Sirte. I'm talking about all those oil terminals in the east of Libya. But he had enough troops to deploy them to Tripoli. And the main thing, he has aviation the aviation that's been maintained by the French. The pilots that fly his aircraft into combat aren't Libyans. The French Special Ops support him. Same as Italians support the internationally recognized government of Fayez Al-Sarraj.
- So France is fighting Italy?
- Well, if I put it politely... a bit sometimes not directly, but still. Both sides are trying to eradicate the local tribes. It's not a new thing for them. In addition, the competition between France and Italy has been a classic thing in these lands. They've been doing that for more than 100 years. Didn't you know? In addition, he's supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates with their money. They support Haftar.
- And who does ISIS (banned in Russia) support?
- Haftar says that he's going to attack Tripoli because there are terrorists there. Oh, whatever, everybody says that. Let's omit the rhetorics of the Libyan field commanders big bosses, and political leaders, shall we? It's powerful and pompous it's always designed for the international media but has nothing to do with the real situation. There are a lot of Islamists there. But they either join some local militias… The US closely cooperates with the militants of Misrata. Almost everybody's an Islamist out there. So what? Did that stop anybody in Syria? Did that stop anybody in Iraq? Why should that stop anybody in Libya? These people vanish to avoid being a concentrated spot for the application of a Western or local strike. They were holding Derna. Today, they have a lot of footholds across the country. They migrate and blend in. That's the way Islamism works.
- Haftar can't take all of Libya.
- Haftar lacks strength and money. How does the war unfold there? Say, you're a field marshal. I like that idea, reminds me of Urfin Jus and his wooden soldiers. Field Marshal Din Gior. I know a couple of other field marshals, but this one fits perfectly. Suvorov was a generalissimo and that was enough. But the Libyans are no match for Suvorov. You pay money and the unit that supported the government of Fayez Al-Sarraj yesterday supports you now. The Emirates didn't give him enough money though because the money to buy all of Libya... Well, the UAE has enough problems in other parts of the world. But the sum was enough to raise the stakes dramatically before the international conference or instead of it — since Haftar aims to disrupt it. -
- He's got enough, right? Are the peacekeepers doing anything there? And why did they flee so fast, including the American and all other peacekeepers?
- Who are you talking about? The peacekeepers? Where? In Libya? Who? What peacekeepers?
- They officially stated that they were there but got scared and left.
- You know, almost every party officially stated that Russians are fighting for Haftar there. We're looking forward to seeing our Kantemirovskaya Division there with all its tanks.
- Why the Kantemirovskaya Division?
- That'd be fun.
- It's all coming to the point when we should expect Budyonny Cavalry to show up.
- With jeeps instead of horses, they are riding jeeps there or APCs at best, approaching Tripoli and driving past it. Haftar has already announced that he's not going to take the city as that would result in a high number of civilian casualties. On the other hand, we should realize the simple truth: It was March 25, when he told his generals that they had to purge Tripoli from the radicals and that people had asked him to do that. The people of Syria, Libya, Iraq, the entire Middle East, and Tripoli in particular since all terrorists had fled there. That means there will be no peacekeepers.
- But the US demanded they stopped the bombings because it was withdrawing its troops.
- Yeah, sure. That was very scary. We call it "scaring a hedgehog with a naked butt." After the murder of the American ambassador and all the CIA agents that the US did nothing about it would seem that Libya doesn't respect the US that much. However, the Libyan conflict has an impact on the oil market, right?
- Oil prices are growing.
- Everything influences everything. In this case, I doubt the conflict was ignited to let Saudi Arabia or Russia balance out our budgets. However, there's one curious detail. Generally speaking, Haftar and Al-Sarraj were supposed to meet in Europe. But instead of attending the meeting Haftar paid a sudden visit to Saudi Arabia. He was welcomed at the highest level. It's clear that Saudi Arabia wasn't going to give him weapons or money. The Emirates just asked if SA could have their guy over. In this case, there's something much more interesting than the American statements. The State Department has been promoting a joint statement by the UK, Italy, France, the US, and the UAE in which they wag their finger at Haftar and tell him his a nasty boy. The result: Right now, his aviation is carefully attacking the only operating Ari field in the vicinity of Tripoli.
- The UN Security Council wanted to blame him for everything, but we didn't let them do that. Do we support Haftar or do we remain neutral, carefully follow the events, and talk to every party?
- It's important to stress that we don't support all Western policies in the Middle East, that's for sure. The last time we supported the West was at the beginning of the Libyan conflict. But later it became clear that it wouldn't just affect the Middle East and we decided to quit their club. The club was too self-destructive for us.
- It appears that the West and the US have lost in Libya.
- I would say that they that they've failed miserably. I can't say they've lost. Were they fighting for something? Did they want something?
- They claim it was for democracy's sake.
- Could you explain to me what democracy is then?
- I'm not the one to ask. At this point, a shadow of Nikolai Zlobin appears and tells us: "If you can do something, go on, do it, guys!"
- That's a great suggestion. But I believe we're acting this way not because Mr. Zlobin told us to. Undoubtedly. Because even though I love Mr. Zlobin, he reminds me of one of our presidential candidates a bit who used to do this little shrug and say: "Why..." followed by his last name. "Why me?" We're aware of Zlobin's position on Libya. We're aware of the US sanctions against Libya. We're aware of the US attitude towards the rest of the world. However, the issue is that it doesn't matter which side a bull turns in a porcelain shop be it left or right, the porcelain doesn't care.
- Look, the American bull in a porcelain shop is turning. The US has proclaimed the IRGC a terrorist organization. At the same time, like it or not Iran is participating in the Syrian peace conference along with Turkey, a NATO country. Despite all threats, Turkey confirms the purchase of the S-400 even though they are threatened to get expelled from NATO. What's happening in that tangle?
- They won't kick Turkey out of NATO. It doesn't matter whether they have the S-400 or not, because several NATO members possess Russian weapon systems. No one has the S-400, but Greece has the S-300. Nobody seems to mind that. Slovakia has had Russian systems since Soviet times. Yes, they are old, but Slovakia is a NATO member. In this regard, Turkey makes a philosophic appeal to reality. In addition, the personal relations of Erdogan and Trump are so bad and his attempts to blackmail Turkey and impose sanctions against it have been teasing the Turkish media and establishment for so long, that it's clear that Turkey would want to tease America with our systems. At the same time, we shouldn't think that something else is happening other than the blackmailing of the US and the EU. "We're going to be friends with the Russians now." No, that's just blackmailing. Another thing is that they might go a little too far in this one. Is it bad for Russia that the US has proclaimed the IRGC a terrorist organization? Why should it be? For goodness' sake, that's utter nonsense. The only natural response was to proclaim Americans be it their Army or anything else, terrorists.
- Didn't the US cooperate with the IRGC when they were fighting ISIS (banned in Russia) in Iraq?
- You see, the issue is that it's all in the past now. Because I doubt that after General Qasem Soleimani was proclaimed the leader of a terrorist organization the IRGC and Shia militias from Iraq would cooperate with the US. We call that shooting one's leg. Why would you do something like that if you wanted to cooperate? But that's the way the US handles things now.
- But what's the policy of the US? I can't seem to understand what they're trying to accomplish in this part of the world.
- Do you understand what they accomplished with their sanctions against us? The only country that's capable of destroying America went from being as friendly as possible to being, I'd say, slightly annoyed. Just slightly so far. It hasn't become ugly yet but it surely can. What can the US accomplish with such policies? You have your goal of the day. And it suddenly…
- You mean the nation of one-dimensional thinking?
- You suddenly get an idea. It's like that heart-stirring video from a zoo in Novosibirsk that's been posted online recently entitled "a Pallas's cat and a ball." A giant fluffy wild cat walks proudly to his playground suddenly sees a ball and pounces at it like a small kitten. The US saw a ball. Some agency imagined that would be the right thing to do. The decision makers, the President and his son-in-law, in this case, thought the idea was rad. How will they sort it out? You know, when the US supported the Islamic Revolution in Iran and it did, and President Jimmy Carter said that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a guy he could arrange with in the same passionate manner as Trump now proclaims the IRGC a terrorist organization. What was he thinking about? Nothing? Please note, that it happened in 1979.
